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Unit 5 - Probability

This unit builds on students’ knowledge and understanding of statistics from the 6th grade. Students begin to use random samples to make predictions about an entire population and judge the possible discrepancies of the predictions. Opportunities are provided for students to use real-life situations from science and social studies to show the purpose of using random sampling to make inferences about a population. Students will begin to understand the probability of chance (simple and compound). Along with the understanding of probability, they will develop probability models to be used to find the probability of events. They will make predictions and use the information from simulations for predictions. The students will begin to expand their knowledge and understanding of the probability of simple events.

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**MGSE7.SP.1** Understand that statistics can be used to gain information about a population by examining a sample of the population; generalizations about a population from a sample are valid only if the sample is representative of that population. Understand that random sampling tends to produce representative samples and support valid inferences.

**MGSE7.SP.2** Use data from a random sample to draw inferences about a population with an unknown characteristic of interest. Generate multiple samples (or simulated samples) of the same size to gauge the variation in estimates or predictions. For example, estimate the mean word length in a book by randomly sampling words from the book; predict the winner of a school election based on randomly sampled survey data. Gauge how far off the estimate or prediction might be. Draw informal comparative inferences about two populations.

**MGSE7.SP.3** Informally assess the degree of visual overlap of two numerical data distributions with similar variabilities, measuring the difference between the medians by expressing it as a multiple of the interquartile range.

**MGSE7.SP.4** Use measures of center and measures of variability for numerical data from random samples to draw informal comparative inferences about two populations. For example, decide whether the words in a chapter of a seventh‐grade science book are generally longer than the words in a chapter of a fourth‐grade science book.

**MGSE7.SP.5** Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. Larger numbers indicate greater likelihood. A probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability around 1/2 indicates an event that is neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability near 1 indicates a likely event.

**MGSE7.SP.6** Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance process that produces it and observing its long-run relative frequency. Predict the approximate relative frequency given the probability. For example, when rolling a number cube 600 times, predict that a 3 or 6 would be rolled roughly 200 times, but probably not exactly 200 times.

**MGSE7.SP.7** Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare experimental and theoretical probabilities of events. If the probabilities are not close, explain possible sources of the discrepancy.

**MGSE7.SP.7a** Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all outcomes and use the model to determine probabilities of events. For example, if a student is selected at random from a class, find the probability that Jane will be selected and the probability that a girl will be selected.

**MGSE7.SP.7b** Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing frequencies in data generated from a chance process. For example, find the approximate probability that a spinning penny will land heads up or that a tossed paper cup will land open-end down. Do the outcomes for the spinning penny appear to be equally likely based on the observed frequencies?

**MGSE7.SP.8** Find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams, and simulation.

**MGSE7.SP.8a **Understand that, just as with simple events, the probability of a compound event is the fraction of outcomes in the sample space for which the compound event occurs.

**MGSE7.SP.8b** Represent sample spaces for compound events using methods such as organized lists, tables, and tree diagrams. For an event described in everyday language (e.g., “rolling double sixes”), identify the outcomes in the sample space which compose the event.

**MGSE7.SP.8c **Explain ways to set up a simulation and use the simulation to generate frequencies for compound events. For example, if 40% of donors have to type A blood, create a simulation to predict the probability that it will take at least 4 donors to find one with type A blood?